17 January, 2008

Is it Schadenfreude I am Feeling?

One certainly does not want to admit the pleasure that can be had in others’ misery, but then often times there are those many of whom take consideration in the state of things and their cyclical nature. Economics is called the Dismal Science for a reason and for anyone to think that with rises there aren’t falls, well too often that is self-diluting. Economically, things are probably getting worse not better for a while. As it is an election year, conventional wisdom was saying about five months, liquidate money in the market, and move it to something that is more secure, e.g. gold.

For the past six years, following 9-11, we have seen unfettered growth. Much of that growth was predicated on a confluence of things: cheap credit, a culture of consumerism reinforced by our patriotism following the tragedy (one that didn’t need that much reinforcement), benevolent world following our tragedy, governmental spending of our budget surplus on Wars and pork barrel spending (using our tragedy as justification), and finally unneeded tax cuts justified by our tragedy.

In short, we are in this situation, not for any reason short of mismanagement of our economy by the federal government and the cyclical nature of economics. Of course, with the cycle, those things we can counter-balance through fiscal responsibility, minimizing their effects. Yet, when we allow for swings to take place without restraint, we get what we are now facing, a recession. With our recession, we are going to see housing prices plummet, all in the face of more expensive gasoline. Gasoline will only continue upward, as based on supply and demand.

My thoughts relative to gasoline bring me back to my days in Memphis driving through East Memphis and Germantown, TN. Too often, I recall seeing a massive SUV with a “W” sticker on the back of it. More often than not, I also recall a floppy long hair in the bangs, Southern Frat boy with an Ole Miss sticker, a “W” sticker, a ducks unlimited sticker, and a Widespread Panic sticker (Widespread was a band from Athens, GA playing neo-hippie music) on the back of a Ford Excursion or Chevy Tahoe. For me, at the time, the contrasts shown too brightly, it didn’t make sense for one to spoil their children to have so much, and embrace their spend-happy lifestyles predicated on keeping up with the Jones’s.

What I found most disturbing in that climate was the support of a bad president taking us to war in Iraq. Of course, we had been attacked by horrible people on 9-11, but that attack and what we were about to do in Iraq were completely exclusive of one another. Of course, we knew that at the highest levels, but we continued to march on to it.

Why did I go off on that tangent? In short, I feel as though these people, those who foolishly thought, with righteousness, we were right on everything, therefore we should embrace our worst impulses to spend, spend and spend. Too many Americans were spending like mad. I guess for much of that, I should include myself. Not so much so that I felt the need to buy a large American SUV, but I have always been fiscally rather relaxed with my funds. The climate five years ago was for all of us to spend, and if we didn’t have it, borrow it. That philosophy became common place, and we have seen our economy artificially bubble as a result.

This administration has borrowed on the world’s economic goodwill for American assets in several ways. Our trade deficit is the largest it has ever been, and in the past six years our percentage of global GDP has gone from thirty-one percent to twenty-six percent. These people in the White House and those in Congress up until 2006 didn’t see something on which to spend money they did not like. At the root of it all, there was the justification of us to continue because of our “War on Terror”.

Now, as our homes are worth less and less, and our dollar is worse an all time low relative to other currencies, I have a bit of a smile on my face. Why? Well, we needed a correction, and people saying so didn’t make it happen. It has taken this country being run poorly for the past six or seven years for the population to realize. Now that they realize, this “Revolution” we continuously heard from those on AM radio has shown its true colors. Conservatism, as defined by the likes of “W” and Rush Limbaugh is a failure, as they do a horrible job with whatever it is they believe. This time, there is nothing to blame except horrible mismanagement of the Economy. It has taken a long time, and hopefully we can correct it before our damage to ourselves isn’t too bad.

At the end of his presidency and in the future, we will see George Bush as the worst president in the history of the United States. Not only did Bush mislead us into a war on a nation that did not attack us, sacrificing the World’s political faith in us, but Bush and his party have mismanaged our economy through legislation so badly, our economy relative to the rest of the world is in the worst shape it could be. For me, I only feel alright about it, because methinks that this will allow a greater change to take place. The true colors of “Rush is Right” are shown, and America we cannot have our cake to also eat it.

When we separate ourselves from Economic Fundamentals, for whatever justification we care to believe, we run amuck. It’s just too bad it has to happen, but then for one to play they have to pay.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Nietzsche says, "Out of chaos comes order." - Blazing Saddles

I heard somewhere (one of the cable news shows) that today's global economy is too vast and nebulous for any one country's economic policy to influence it. There is simply the ebbs and flows of the business cycle and U.S. Presidents are riding the wave along with the rest of us. Clinton's success was just as precarious as Bush's failure; and the opposite result could've happened just as easily.

I don't buy it, even if I have no credibility to question it. I just feel that free-falling into an abyss of debt can't be good. I don't think I'm alone in this, which matters because the economy is largely a psychological state.

My hope is that we are simply entering a hiccup on a larger curve of unprecedented growth (1994-2006?) - out of chaos will come order.